Hrant Mikaelian - War on Iran, Russia on TRIPP, New MPG Poll in Armenia, Economy | Ep 471, Sep 7, 2025 [EP471]

Show Notes

MPG Poll

Slide 2: Methodology

• Research method: Telephone surveys
• Sample Size: 1101
• Error Margin: ±3%
• Implementation period: August 25, 2025 - August 30, 2025
• Research location: Republic of Armenia

Slide 3: How Do You View the August 8 Meeting in DC?

On August 8, 2025, an agreement was signed in Washington between Azerbaijan, Armenia’s government, and the United States regarding the TRIPP corridor. This agreement provides for certain communications and infrastructure to pass through Armenia and Azerbaijan. What is your attitude towards this agreement, according to the following options?

Results:

• Fully positive – 22.8%
• Somewhat positive – 19.3%
• Somewhat negative – 13.6%
• Fully negative – 34.0%
• Difficult to answer – 7.0%
• Not familiar with the agreement – 3.3%

Overall:

• Positive: 42.1%
• Negative: 47.6%
• Other (DK + not familiar): 10.3%

Slide 4: How Do You View Giving a Road Through Syunik to Azerbaijan

The declaration reaffirmed that Azerbaijan and Armenia are committed to opening communications. These efforts also include ensuring communications between the main part of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic of Armenia through the Syunik region, with mutual communication opportunities for Armenia. Do you support the opening of such a road through Syunik?

Results:

• Fully support – 17.4%
• Somewhat support – 18.1%
• Somewhat oppose – 11.3%
• Fully oppose – 47.6%
• Difficult to answer – 5.6%

Overall:

• Positive: 35.5%
• Negative: 58.9%
• Other (DK): 5.6%

Slide 5: Will The Agreements In Washington Bring Lasting Peace

Do you agree that the Washington agreements will contribute to long-lasting peace in the region?

Results:

• Fully agree – 15.8%
• Somewhat agree – 22.8%
• Somewhat disagree – 13.5%
• Fully disagree – 41.6%
• Difficult to answer – 6.3%

Overall:

• Positive (agree + somewhat agree) – 38.6%
• Negative (disagree + fully disagree) – 55.1%
• Other (DK): 6.3%

Slide 6: On Changing The Constitution as a Precondition for Signing Peace

According to published information, Azerbaijan has emphasized constitutional changes in Armenia as a condition for signing a peace agreement. Which statement do you support the most?

Results:

• The Constitution of Armenia belongs to the people of Armenia, and no country, including Azerbaijan, has the right to interfere – 58.0%
• This is Azerbaijan’s internal political move and has no importance for Armenia – 25.1%
• I would support changes to Armenia’s Constitution if it helps establish lasting peace and good-neighborly relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan – 12.2%
• Difficult to answer – 4.7%

Slide 7: Political Prisoners in Armenia

Question 1 (left side)

Do you think there are political prisoners in Armenia today?

Results:

• Yes – 62%
• No – 18%
• Difficult to answer – 20%

Question 2 (right side)

If yes, who do you consider to be a political prisoner? (multiple answers possible)

Results:

• Samvel Karapetyan – 71.5%
• Bagrat Srbazan (Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan) – 38.5%
• Mikayel Ajapahyan – 37.8%
• Armen Ashotyan – 9.6%
• Varuzhan Avetisyan – 4.1%
• Artur Sargsyan – 3.3%
• Other – 13.0%

Slide 8: On Arrest of Samvel Karapetyan

Samvel Karapetyan, the founder of the Tashir Group, businessman and philanthropist, spoke out in defense of the Armenian Apostolic Church, after which he was arrested shortly after. By court decision, he was detained for 2 months, and on August 15, 2025, the detention was extended for another 2 months. What do you think of this approach by the government?

Results:

• Fully positive – June: 11.7% | August: 12.6%
• Somewhat positive – June: 4.8% | August: 5.9%
• Somewhat negative – June: 19.2% | August: 16.4%
• Fully negative – June: 57.9% | August: 48.0%
• Difficult to answer – June: 6.4% | August: 17.0%

Overall:

• Positive (fully + somewhat) – June: 16.5% | August: 18.5%
• Negative (somewhat + fully) – June: 77.1% | August: 64.4%

Slide 9: On Arrest of Archbishops

Archbishop Michael Ajapahian and Bagrat Srbazan were arrested and detained at the end of June 2025. Then, in August, the court decided to extend their detention. How do you evaluate this decision?

Results:

• Fully positive – 17.3%
• Somewhat positive – 7.7%
• Somewhat negative – 12.6%
• Fully negative – 44.2%
• Difficult to answer – 18.1%

Overall:

• Positive (fully + somewhat) – 25.0%
• Negative (somewhat + fully) – 56.8%

Slide 10: How Would You Vote if Elections Were Held This Coming Sunday

If snap parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, which party or bloc would you vote for?

Results:

• “Civil Contract” Party – 17.3% (+4.2%)
• Samvel Karapetyan’s bloc/new party – 13.4% (+10.6%)
• Armenia Alliance – 6.4%
• “Prosperous Armenia” party – 3.8%
• “I have honor” alliance – 3.4%
• DOK Party – 2.5%
• “Republic” Party – 1.1%
• Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) – 1.1%
• “Bright Armenia” Party – 1.0%
• Meritocratic Party of Armenia – 0.9%
• Armenian National Congress – 0.8%
• “A Country to Live” Party – 0.8%
• National Democratic Alliance (Bever) – 0.8%
• Social Democratic Party – 0.5%
• Other – 1.1%

Non-voters / undecided:

• Will not participate – 23.9%
• Refuse to answer – 16.3%
• Difficult to answer – 5.0%

Wrap-up

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