Groong Links:
Guest:
Topics:
- Trump, Pashinyan, Aliyev DC Summit
- Ukraine War and the Shifting World Order
- Russia and the South Caucasus
Episode 458 | Recorded: August 9, 2025
Show Notes
In this episode, former U.S. Army officer and military-political analyst Stanislav Krapivnik discusses the geopolitical fallout from the Trump-Pashinyan-Aliyev summit in Washington, which saw the announcement of a “peace” framework, the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, U.S. plans for a 99-year “Trump Corridor” across Armenia, and the dropping of Section 907 to allow arms sales to Azerbaijan. He examines Russia’s heavy focus on the Ukraine war at the expense of the South Caucasus, the loss of Russian leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the growing role of Turkey. Krapivnik warns of U.S. and British designs to destabilize the region, outlines possible Russian and Iranian responses, and explores the strategic importance of Georgia, the Abkhazia railway, and regional connectivity. The conversation also delves into Armenia’s domestic political challenges, the influence of Western NGOs, and the erosion of core national institutions.
Main Topics Addressed
- Fallout from the Trump-Pashinyan-Aliyev summit in Washington, including the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and plans for a 99-year “Trump Corridor” across Armenia.
- U.S. dropping Section 907 to allow arms sales to Azerbaijan, while excluding Armenia from such agreements.
- Russia’s focus on the Ukraine war and its impact on influence in the South Caucasus.
- Turkish ambitions in the region and the erosion of Russian leverage over Azerbaijan.
- Possible Russian and Iranian responses to increased U.S. and Azerbaijani activity in the Caucasus.
- Armenia’s domestic political trajectory under Pashinyan, Western NGO influence, and institutional erosion.
- Strategic importance of Georgia, the Abkhazia railway, and potential diplomatic paths to reopening it.
Key Questions Discussed
- Is the Trump-Pashinyan-Aliyev announcement a genuine peace step or a provocation toward Russia and Iran?
- Why has the Ukraine war consumed so much of the Kremlin’s attention at the expense of the South Caucasus?
- Has Russia lost too much leverage over Azerbaijan, and why has it tolerated hostile actions?
- What is needed for Russia to reestablish influence in the Caucasus?
- How aligned are Russian and Iranian interests regarding the Zangezur/Trump Corridor?
- Could Azerbaijan’s state stability be more at risk than Armenia’s?
- What diplomatic steps would be necessary to reopen the Abkhazia railway for Armenia’s trade?
Referenced Articles & Sources
Wrap-up
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Guests
Stanislav Krapivnik
Stanislav Krapivnik is a former US Army officer, supply chain exec and military-political expert, now based in Russia. He was born in Lugansk during the Soviet times, migrated to the US as a child, served in the US army, did not like what it was doing in former Yugoslavia, quit, and returned to Russia. Mr. Krapivnik is an independent contractor and consults and appears in the international media in his areas of expertise in military matters, NATO, America, history, economics and supply chains.
Hosts
Asbed Bedrossian
Asbed Bedrossian is an IT professional with extensive experience in enterprise IT infrastructure, IT security, enterprise applications, data center operations, high performance computing, ITSM, ITPM, and more.
Asbed is founder of the Armenian News Network Groong (ca. 1989/1990) and co-founder of the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020.
Hovik Manucharyan
Hovik Manucharyan is an information security engineer who moved from Seattle to Armenia in 2022. He co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020 and has been a contributor to Groong News since the late 1990s.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by Hovik Manucharyan on the ANN/Groong podcast are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of his employer or any other organization.