Show Notes

Topics Covered

Background: Since the November 9-10, 2020 ceasefire statement, Azerbaijan has dictated terms to Armenia, often using military force or threats. The latest development is the March 13 announcement of a finalized peace agreement, though many in Armenia see it as a capitulation.
The Announcement: Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov announced on March 13 that the text of the agreement was finalized. Armenia confirmed it later, claiming the announcement was supposed to be joint.
Lack of Transparency: The treaty text remains undisclosed to the public, prompting Armenian opposition groups to label it a surrender document.

Unilateral Demands: Azerbaijan has attached preconditions before signing the treaty, including:
- Dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, effectively erasing Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) from international negotiations.
- Constitutional changes in Armenia, removing references to the Armenian Genocide and Artsakh.
Ramping Up Ceasefire Accusations: Following the treaty announcement, Azerbaijan has escalated claims of Armenian ceasefire violations, issuing three accusations on March 16 and three more on March 17.
What This Means: These demands and escalations indicate that Azerbaijan may not intend to sign the agreement soon, instead using delays as leverage for further concessions.

Jeddah Ceasefire Talks: Ukraine and Russia held peace negotiations in Jeddah last week.
Largest Ever UAV Attack: The talks were overshadowed by Ukraine’s biggest drone attack on Russian cities, increasing tensions.
Steve Witkoff’s Moscow Visit: U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin following the Jeddah talks.
Ceasefire Proposal: Putin did not immediately accept a ceasefire but left room for further negotiations.
Trump-Putin Call Scheduled for March 18: A pivotal phone call is set between Trump and Putin, reportedly to discuss land divisions and control over key power plants.

France & UK’s Position: European rhetoric against Russia is hardening, with talk of rearmament.
Military Build-up: Germany is considering converting Volkswagen factories into tank production facilities.
UK’s Ground Troops Proposal: The UK has hinted at sending ground troops to Ukraine, further raising tensions.

Unusual Visit: On his way back from Moscow, Witkoff made an unpublicized stop in Baku.
Speculation on Israel & Iran:
- Azerbaijan-Israel ties are deepening, with reports that Azerbaijan’s state oil company, SOCAR, has entered a deal for Israeli gas fields.
- Discussions may have included potential Azerbaijani involvement in a future conflict with Iran.
- Some sources speculate that Azerbaijan might be pushed to join the Abraham Accords, normalizing ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Is this a genuine step toward peace, or a forced capitulation?
Why is the agreement text hidden from the Armenian public?
What are the risks of signing an agreement with undisclosed terms?
Has Pashinyan agreed to deliverables that aren’t in the document?
Are Azerbaijan’s preconditions a stalling tactic to delay signing while extracting more concessions?

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