Show Notes

Summary
In this episode of Conversations on Groong (Ep‑417), we discuss the latest MPG Poll results, covering public opinion on Armenia’s direction, key domestic issues, EU accession, and electoral choices, followed by an in‑depth review of the 2024 economy and prospects and risks for 2025.

Topics Covered

MPG Poll Results
• Poll Methodology: Telephone survey of 1,100 Armenians (3% sampling error)
• Overall sentiment: Is Armenia moving in the right or wrong direction?
• Top issues facing Armenia today (security, economy, governance)
• Reactions to the January 9 draft law on launching Armenia’s EU accession process
• Beliefs about Armenia joining the EU within the next 10 years
• Views on the strategic partnership between the US and Armenia
• Awareness of new income declaration and tax return requirements by May 1, 2025
• The trial of the Artsakh military-political leadership in Baku and government efforts to secure the return of hostages
• Electoral preferences if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday
Review of the 2024 Economy
• Economic growth: 8% year-over-year in 2024 (down from 9.8% in 2023)
• Industrial output: Up 4.7%
• Gross agricultural production: Up 1.6%
• Construction: Up 14.5%
• Services (excluding trade): Up 10.6%
• Trade turnover: Up 17%
• Exports: Up 53.1% (driven largely by re‑exports)
• Imports: Up 33.8%
• Foreign trade: Up 41.5%
• Consumer price index (CPI): Up 0.3%
• Average monthly salary growth: Up 6.4%
• Electrical energy production: Up 6.5%
• Significant expansion in consumer and mortgage loans (approximately 31% and 26%)
• Analysis of whether these figures are sustainable or driven by temporary factors (such as sanctions‑related re‑exports)
Looking Ahead to 2025
• Projected economic growth of 5.8–6%
• Sector-by‑sector prospects and risks (construction, industry, agriculture, services, energy, trade)
• Concerns over rising public debt versus improved salary growth
• The broader impact of temporary economic factors on future public sentiment and government revenues

Key Questions Discussed

Is Armenia generally moving in the right or wrong direction based on current poll results?
What are the most pressing issues facing Armenia today—security, economic challenges, or governance?
How is the public reacting to the draft law aimed at initiating Armenia’s EU accession process?
Can Armenia realistically join the EU within the next 10 years?
What is the public’s response to the strategic partnership between the US and Armenia?
Are citizens prepared for the new income declaration and tax return requirements by May 1, 2025?
Is the government doing enough to address the trial of the Artsakh military-political leadership in Baku?
Which political party or bloc would voters support in a potential parliamentary election?
In reviewing the 2024 economy: Are the positive growth figures sustainable, or are they being driven by temporary factors like re‑exports?
Do rising consumer and mortgage loans indicate healthy investment trends or mounting public debt?
Are increased salaries translating into a tangible improvement in public sentiment?
For 2025, which sectors are poised for growth and which may face a slowdown, and what risks or opportunities lie ahead?

Links Referenced During the Show