Yeghia Tashjian - Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire in Lebanon and Escalation in Syria | Ep 389 - Dec 2, 2024 [EP389]

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Guest:

• Yeghia Tashjian

Topics:

• Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire in Lebanon
• Escalation in Syria
• Effect on Armenian Communities

Episode 389 | Recorded: December 1, 2024

Show Notes

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire in Lebanon

Two months ago Israel started bombing Lebanon, and from there it got much worse with daily bombings of Beirut and other major civilian areas, and finally a damaging invasion into South Lebanon. This past Tuesday’s ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah was welcome news.

Briefly, the ceasefire agreement requires Hezbollah to retreat north of the Litani river, approximately 40 km north of the Israeli border; Israel leaves Lebanon; Lebanese armed forces and UN peacekeepers take over in south Lebanon, south of the Litani. Both sides are claiming victory and the chief commander of the IRGC has congratulated Hezbollah on their success.

Some details known to us are:

• Hezbollah will agree to move North of the Litani river
• Lebanon’s regular army and security forces will be the only military in Southern lebanon
• Israel will gradually withdraw to the blue line within 60 days
• Return to UNSC Resolution 1701

Questions:

• Who managed this ceasefire, and what’s your assessment of it?
• There were conflicting reports whether the cease fire was permanent or temporary? What’s your take?
• Hezbollah exists to put pressure on Israel, to come to terms with the Palestinian cause. Will Hezbollah be satisfied remaining north of the Litani in the long term?
  • And how will this be reflected in internal Lebanese politics?
  • Does Lebanon have the necessary armed forces to keep Hezbollah sticking to the agreement?
• All this is happening as the hawkish Trump administration is weeks away from taking power in the United States. How does the Trump factor play in all of this?

Effect on War in Gaza

While the ceasefire with Hezbollah does not mention Gaza, where over 45,000 Palestinians have been killed, with over 70% of them being women and children, in fact it may be giving Israel more freedom to continue its genocide, since the threat from Hezbollah rocket attacks will apparently be diminished.

The incoming Trump administration has made hawkish pro-Israeli appointments, and we already know its posture from the time of the first Trump administration.

Questions:

• Can this ceasefire be seen by Hamas, or the Palestinian people, as an abandonment of their cause?
• Where do you expect the war in Gaza to go from here?
• Do you have a sense of how Trump’s policies will evolve towards Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and the entire middle east?

Escalation in Syria

Just as the cease fire in Lebanon took effect, terrorists supported by Turkey, the so-called “moderate Syrian opposition,” went on a large-scale offensive in Northeastern Syria. As of this time, there are reports that Aleppo is mostly under the control of the militants, who have taken control of the Aleppo airport and are moving towards Hama.

Aleppo is home to the largest Armenian community in Syria. It was one of the main nodes in the “deportation routes” used during the Armenian Genocide, leading to a huge influx of Armenian survivors, some of whom decided to settle there. We should mention that a decade ago, during the initial waves of the war in Syria, many Armenian towns were depopulated as Armenians fled Syria, many of them ending up in Armenia. And now, it seems like a deja vu.

Questions:

• Was the timing of the ceasefire and beginning of these attacks in Syria a mere coincidence?
• Can you give us a lay of the conflict right now, and who is attacking whom, and who is allied with whom, in the north of Syria?
• What kind of support does Turkey provide to these groups?
• Putting this offensive in the context of the larger Russia-West war in Ukraine, is this new front a message to Russia on the part of Turkey, or the West, or NATO?

The Iranian envoy has assured Assad that they stand with him in these tough times, while Trump’s former Intel acting chief claims that Putin is sacrificing Assad for his bigger picture issues.

Questions:

• Do you think the pro-Assad camp was caught flat-footed by the terrorist offensive, and how do you see Russia and Iran engaging in Syria?
• Will this increase tensions between Russia and Turkey?
• What about Trump’s posture towards Iran?
• Does Assad have the forces to regain control of the north of Syria?

Lebanese-Armenian Community

The Armenian community in Lebanon has suffered alongside the rest of the Lebanese people.

Questions:

• What’s the current status of the community?

Wrap-up

That’s our show! We hope you found it useful. Please find us on Social Media and follow us everywhere you get your Armenian news.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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