Georgia Elections Aftermath and the Situation in Abkhazia [EP388]

Groong Links:

• GIVE to GROONG
• linktr.ee/Groong

Guest:

• Archil Sikharulidze

Topics:

• Constitutional Crisis In Georgia?
• Western Reactions and Escalation
• Russian Reactions and Georgia’s Strategic Direction
• Unrest In Abkhazia

Episode 388 | Recorded: November 30, 2024

Show Notes

Georgian Election Aftermath

Constitutional Crisis?

To recap, on October 26 Georgia held parliamentary elections, and Georgian Dream won a 54% majority, while the combined opposition parties and alliances that cleared the 5% vote margin to get into parliament, got 37%.

The international reactions to the election were predictable. The West has rallied behind Georgian president Salome Zurabishvili, and called the results fraudulent. Everybody else saw the results as an expression of Georgia’s desire to steer clear of the Russia-West global firestorm raging in Ukraine.

OK, fast forward a month: as Zurabishvili’s term as president comes to an end in mid-December, she is demanding the annulment of the election results and inciting western-funded opposition rallies in Tbilisi which in the past few days are bordering on violence. Most opposition forces have announced that they will renounce their mandates. One opposition party, Gakharia’s Strong Georgia, however, has not joined the boycott.

Questions:

• Is there now a constitutional crisis in Georgia?
• How do you think the situation will develop?
• Without the opposition MPs picking up their mandates, does the parliament still have a quorum to function?

The plenary session of the parliament to decide on the presidential election was held without a decree from president Zurabishvili who as we said claims the election results are invalid. During the first session, the Georgian Dream party in the new parliament nominated Mikheil Kavelashvili as its candidate for president and set the date of the upcoming presidential election to December 14. But Zurabishvili’s circles insist that such elections would be illegal until the Georgian Constitutional Court rules on her post-election challenges.

Questions:

• What does Kavelashvili’s nomination mean?
• Is the upcoming presidential election legal, and can Zurabishvili hold up the election?
  • Has the constitutional court ruled on the constitutionality of the first plenary session?

Reactions from the West

The situation remains fluid. The EU parliament passed a resolution calling the elections neither free nor fair and urged EU institutions to limit contacts with the new government until elections are re-run under international supervision. The resolution also called for imposing sanctions against Georgian Dream government members, including Bidzina Ivanishvili, Irakli Kobakhidze, and others.

In response, the Georgian Dream government, just this Thursday, suspended EU membership talks for 4 years, accusing the EU of using the discussions as blackmail.

NOTE: Just now: the US has decided to suspend its strategic partnership with Georgia, saying: “We condemn the use of excessive force against Georgians who were protesting treason against the constitution. The EU is a bulwark against the Kremlin. Because of this, we stopped the strategic partnership with Georgia.”

Questions:

• Is the West escalating the situation or is there more nuance that we’re not seeing?
• Do you think all of these developments register on incoming US president Donald Trump’s radar?
• What do you think will be Trump’s foreign policy towards Georgia and the South Caucasus region?
  • Given Trump’s animosity towards China, what could be his posture towards the Anaklia port project?

Reactions From Russia

You are one of the few Georgian experts who maintains dialogue with various Russian academicians. In fact, recently you were invited to talk at Valdai Club.

Questions:

• What is Russia’s posture towards these political developments in Georgia?
• Is there a rapprochement between Russia and Georgia, as GD takes over greater control of the government?

Abkhazia

In November 2024, political unrest erupted in Abkhazia over opposition to a Russian investment agreement allowing property purchases by Russians. Protests intensified after the arrest of five activists, leading to the storming of the parliament building and clashes that injured 14 people. Amid mounting pressure, President Aslan Bzhania resigned on November 19, with Vice President Badra Gunba stepping in as acting president. A snap presidential election is set for February 15, 2025, to restore stability.

We’ve heard numerous explanations about why the current political conflict in Abkhazia emerged. One theory is that it was the result of western interference, a sort of a “color revolution” from the west. Others, such as yourself have claimed that the revolt by the opposition in Abkhazia was an independent strain among the Abkhaz, reacting against the potential for property ownership of Russians in Abkhazia.

Questions:

• What was the source of this recent conflict?
  • Can what happened in Abkhazia be viewed independently of the West-Russia conflict?
  • Was it really a single law on property ownership?
• Are Abkhazians really independent?
  • With only 5 UN members recognizing them (Russia, Nikaragua, Venezuela, Syria and Nauru) clearly they rely heavily on Russian support nevertheless.

For Armenia, the question of the Abkhazian rail link to Russia is of extreme importance. Currently, Armenia’s only transportation link with Russia is the mountainous Stepantsminda-Lars highway which is subject to occasional closures.

Therefore, it is in the strategic interests of Armenia to see the Abkhaz railway reopened. And within the context of a potential rapprochement between Russia or Georgia, this period seems to hold potential.

Questions:

• What is the likelihood that in the foreseeable future, the Abkhaz railway will be reopened?
• Who are the main proponents and opponents of this scenario?
• Do Turkey and Azerbaijan have a say here?
  • For instance, Arthur Martirosyan was saying that even if it is reopened, it might only be linked to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and not fully south to Armenia.

Wrap-up

That’s our show! We hope you found it useful. Please find us on Social Media and follow us everywhere you get your Armenian news.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

Guests

Hosts