Tevan Poghosyan - Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks, COP29 in Baku, Gyumri Politics, Police Reform | Ep 386 - Nov 17, 2024 [EP386]

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Guest:

• Tevan Poghosyan

Topics:

• Armenia-Azerbaijan talks
• COP29: Diplomacy and boycotts
• Gyumri’s political intrigues
• Mass dismissal of Armenian government members
• Police “reform”
• Legislative Changes In Preparation For Elections

Episode 386 | Recorded: November 17, 2024

Show Notes

Topics This Week

Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks

Hateful Attacks On Declaration of Independence

Pashinyan severely ramped up his criticism of the Declaration of Independence by saying the document is about Armenia’s non-existence. Recently his hand-picked constitutional court issued the decision that he was hoping would show to Aliyev that the Declaration of Independence doesn’t carry legal force, because it is not part of the text of the constitution. But Aliyev rejected the decision and has continued insisting on his demand that Pashinyan take the constitutional change to a national referendum. We have heard Pashinyan criticize the document before, but this week’s attacks bordered on hate.

Questions:

• What do you attribute this past week’s attacks on Armenia’s founding documents?

Any Last Minute Deals at COP29?

COP29 is in Baku from November 11 to 22. As usual there have been all types of statements from Pashinyan’s circles, from Alen Simonyan saying he’s against attending, to Mirzoyan saying that nobody from Armenia has registered to attend, to deputy FM Vahan Kostanyan saying they won’t rule out attendance.

Questions:

• What is the signal that Pashinyan is waiting for, to run to Baku?

Many European leaders have shunned COP29, and international climate activist Greta Thunberg has not only boycotted it, but she has come to Armenia and also loudly blasted COP29 and Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, there are some interesting people attending. International finance expert Jeffrey Sachs, a high profile UN official was in Baku, then in Yerevan. A co-chair of the Armenian Caucus in the US House of Representatives, Frank Palone, is there. Pallone has an A+ grade by the ANCA for his pro-Armenian politics, yet he’s in Baku, and all the while the ANCA is running a campaign to boycott COP29.

Question:

• Is there evidence of Track 2 diplomacy going on, to get Azerbaijan to sign some agreement with Armenia before Biden leaves office?
• The US Embassy in Baku (not Yerevan) tweeted that Azerbaijan and Armenia are working together on integrated water management. Why now, when borders are not even delimited yet? And also, why are we learning this from a US embassy (in Baku) tweet and not from our own government?

Internal Developments

Balasanyan Boondoggle?

In 2021, Samvel Balasanyan’s Balasanyan Bloc won the municipal elections in Gyumri. Of course any time a party other than Civil Contract wins any elections, there are legal charges against the winners, illegal imprisonments of the leading candidates, and essentially a ruling party crony is eventually appointed to take over the city.

This time is no different. The Balasanyan Bloc reached a power sharing agreement with Civil Contract later in 2021, but in the past year a flurry of corruption charges against them led to paralysis and recent resignations. Right now we’re in the phase of seeing who will take over the mayorship and city council in Gyumri.

That’s like the 50,000 foot view.

Questions:

• Do the charges against the Balasanyan Bloc have merit?
  • Struggling to figure out if this is a political struggle, or if there is real basis for corruption?
  • Note also that Gyumri has hardly recovered from the great 1988 earthquake, and the second largest city in Armenia is hardly an economic force on the national map.
• What is the right outcome for the people of Gyumri?

Night of The Long Knives

Over the weekend, a number of government members, some deemed to be very close confidants of Nikol Pashinyan and Civil Contract were sacked by Pashinyan. Pashinyan confirmed that he asked them to resign, saying that the “requests are not personal, but systemic”.

Who are they?

• Argishti Kyaramyan: Chairman of the RA Investigative Committee. Formerly head of the National Security Service. During the 2020 war, he left his post at the NSS and was conducting a “special mission” in Artsakh.
• Sasun Khachatryan: Chairman of the RA Anti-Corruption Committee. His office is responsible for investigating corruption cases. He is known for the scandalous leaks in 2019 where in which he was colluding with Nikol Pashinyan and Artur Vanetsyan to arrest Robert Kocharyan and Yuri Khachaturov.
• Vahe Ghazaryan: Nikol Pashinyan’s former class-mate from Ijevan and head of the Ministry of the Interior, which includes the police forces. Under his watch, there was wide scale repression of opposition activists including the beatings and repression of protesters on June 12.
• Gnel Sanosyan: Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures
• Rustam Badasyan: Head of the state revenue committee.

In addition to the members of government, Karen Andreasyan of the Supreme Judicial Council has also tendered his resignation. There are also reports that some members of parliament from Civil Contract may also put down their mandates.

Questions:

• What’s your take on this?
  • Are we seeing cracks in Pashinyan and Civil Contract’s iron rule?
  • Opposition MPs suggest that this is positioning for new elections.

Legislative Changes In Preparation For Elections

There is ongoing evidence that the authorities are preparing for elections, and two potential legislative measures spearheaded by Civil Contract are drawing speculation and criticism.

First, there are attempts to change the Armenian constitution, via parliamentary vote, to remove the “stable majority” clause from the constitution. According to the current Armenian constitution, the party or alliance that gets the majority of votes will automatically receive sufficient bonus mandates to give it 54% of the vote.

The council examining constitutional changes voted in favor of a proposal by the Union of Informed Citizens, headed by Daniel Ioanisyan, to remove this “stable majority” clause. However, the council also voted against separating this issue from the general packet of constitutional reforms, which would have allowed it to be expedited and voted on by the National Assembly ahead of the 2026 scheduled elections.

The other, potentially more concerning issue, is a measure by Civil Contract to allow the cancellation of election results if martial law (or state of emergency is declared). This measure has already passed in the first reading.

Questions:

• Can you tell us about this issue with this “stable majority” system, and why pro-government forces are working to remove it now?
• How does the proposed law on cancellation of election results in case of state of emergency work? What are the dangers if it is adopted?

Police Reform

In an interview just yesterday Arpine Sargsyan, deputy minister of internal affairs, said that, as part of the proposed police reforms, the police guard will have among its responsibilities “supporting the security of persons subject to special state protection, the provision of military and emergency legal regimes, as well as anti-terrorist operations.”

Questions:

• What are the key changes, and also what are the goals of this “police reform”?
• What problems is this government trying to solve?
• Is it too far-fetched to think that some of the proposed legislative changes, and some of the police reforms, point to a logic that underscores an effort to secure a win in future elections by a deeply unpopular government?

Wrap-up

That’s our show! We hope you found it useful. Please find us on Social Media and follow us everywhere you get your Armenian news.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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