Suren Sargsyan - Armenia and Trump’s Election as President Again | Ep 384 - Nov 9, 2024 [EP384]

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Guest:

• Suren Sargsyan

Topic:

• Armenia, Armenian Americans, Artsakh
• Ukraine War, NATO, China
• Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran

Episode 384 | Recorded: April 3, 2023

Show Notes

Armenia and Trump’s Election as President Again

We want to look at the coming Trump presidency, especially given some of the things he has said about Ukraine, the Middle East, and of course about Armenia, and Artsakh.

Trump will take office on January 20th, so there are around 70-75 days until then.

But first, let’s take a look at the previous few months in the campaign and how the campaign was perceived among Armenians, including those in Armenia.

Armenia, Armenian Americans, Artsakh

As we’ve discussed with Harut Sassounian in Episode 380, this election was somewhat polarizing and emotional. Most voters already knew whom they would vote for, where potential support for Armenia wasn’t at the top of their list of issues. Furthermore, Armenians suffered as a result of policies of both administrations, so there wasn’t a clear choice to endorse. These are the reasons that the ANCA chose to withhold its endorsement for president.

So let’s ask a few questions about the campaign process.

Questions:

• What’s the view from the republic: Was it right for the ANCA to withhold endorsement?
• Were you able to monitor how the election was covered in Armenia?
  • How did pro-government and opposition media cover the elections?
  • Are there any surveys that indicate how ordinary people in Armenia perceive both Trump and Harris?

In the final week before his election, Trump made a social media post on his TruthSocial platform, saying that “120,000 Armenian Christians were horrifically persecuted and forcibly displaced in Artsakh,” and that he “… will protect persecuted Christians, I will work to stop the violence and ethnic cleansing, and we will restore PEACE between Armenia and Azerbaijan,”

Just when we thought he was done pandering for the Armenian vote, he called Aram Vehapar in Antelias, Lebanon and had a discussion with him.

Questions:

• Why was Trump emphasizing the Christian angle? He talks about persecuted Christian Armenians, he calls up our Christian spiritual leader. Why did he call Aram Vehapar, instead of, for example, calling Makunts in Washington, or the ANCA, or even, more importantly, Karekin Vehapar in Etchmiadzin, or Pashinyan in Yerevan?
  • Was he addressing his evangelical Christian base?
• How did the word Artsakh enter Trump’s geopolitical lexicon?
• Is Trump differentiating his relations with Armenian Americans, from those with Armenia itself?
• How should Armenia engage with Trump?
• How should American Armenians engage with Trump?

Ukraine War

Trump has said that he will resolve the Ukraine war within a day, and possibly before even taking office. He has threatened to both stop funding Ukraine with billions in military aid like Biden has, or supply them with more if Putin doesn’t stop. He wants a win-win agreement and an end to the war.

Questions:

• Well OK, whether he does that in 1 day or 100, what are Trump’s goals in Ukraine? Does he want the conflict to end, or does he want to stop spending billions on that war, or does he want the Europeans to spend more on the war? What are his goals?
• Trump has revived his talk about leaving NATO. Is this a real plan, or a negotiation tactic to get Europe to step up and share the cost of the alliance?
• If the US plans to continue a war of attrition on Russia, then they will need to remove China from the picture. How does China figure in this conflict and in Trump’s plans for a resolution?

Israel, Gaza, Lebanon

Trump is all in on Netanyahu, Israel, and the “right to defend” lingo. A greater regional threat looms as Israel has tried to draw Iran into a direct state-to-state confrontation and involve the US militarily as well. But it is said that behind the scenes Trump is pushing Netanyahu to wind down the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Questions:

• Once again, what are Trump’s foreign policy goals in the region?
• We know Trump is no fan of Iran, and pulled out of the JCPOA during his first presidency. What are his plans in Iran’s direction, and how do Azerbaijan and Armenia figure in US strategy?
• A lot has been written about the showdown of the two global economic superpowers, China and the US. Is Trump trying to stamp out all these relatively minor conflicts around the world so that the US can focus its attention and resources on its main adversary of the 21st century?

Wrap-up

That’s our show! We hope you found it useful. Please find us on Social Media and follow us everywhere you get your Armenian news.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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