Benyamin Poghosyan - Armenia Azerbaijan, Escalation in the Middle East, Constitutional Court Punts, Upcoming BRICS Summit | Ep 373 - Oct 6, 2024 [EP373]

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Guest:

• Benyamin Poghosyan

Topics:

• Armenian Azerbaijani Talks
• Escalation in the Middle East
• Constitutional Court Punts
• Upcoming BRICS Summit

Episode 373 | Recorded: Octoberr 7, 2024

Show Notes

Armenian Azerbaijani Talks

Every week there are new demands from Aliyev in the process of talks between the countries, and this week was no different. Now additionally he wants apologies for Armenian “war crimes”, and maps of mass graves of Azeris killed during the wars between the countries.

At the EAEU meeting in Yerevan this past week, Pashinyan told the participants, including Russian deputy PM Mikhail Mishustin, that Armenia never agreed to curb its sovereignty. Meanwhile, FSB chief Aleksandr Bortnikov said in Moscow that the West is pushing Armenia to leave the CSTO in order to install NATO in that military vacuum, and that they are “persuading Armenia to drag on the negotiations with Azerbaijan.”

Questions:

• How true are those accusations by Bortnikov?
  • To us it seems like Pashinyan has been waving a white flag for four years, and conceding territories, freedoms and dignity. How is Pashinyan “dragging out the negotiations?”
• Before this latest round of demands, Aliyev was saying that there was agreement on 80% of the document in discussion. What has changed in the past week or two, that we’ve gone from 80% agreement to threats of war?
  • Do you think the constant stream of requirements from Aliyev are negotiation ploys to distract from not signing the agreement, or to trade for other points within the agreement and so on?
  • Do they need an official response from the Armenian side?
• It seems like the Blinken-Mirzoyan-Bayramov trilateral meeting in New York was a failure. Where does that leave the talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Escalation in the Middle East

The past month has seen a serious escalation of tensions and war in and around Israel. The war in Gaza continues and Israel has assassinated dozens of Hezbollah leaders around Lebanon through booby-trapped pagers and cell phones, invaded southern Lebanon and is now carpet bombing entire residential neighborhoods in Beirut.

Israel also assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, while he was a guest of Pezeshkian, in a guesthouse that was run by the Iranian military.

After two months, last week, Iran finally responded with hundreds of missiles lobbed towards Israel, and now Israel is contemplating a direct response on Iran.

Questions:

• How will a potential Israeli attack against Iran change the dynamic between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
• What influence and leverage does Azerbaijan have on the war in Gaza?

Notes: Azerbaijan sharpens war rhetoric

• Ilham Aliyev: “I warn Armenia: stop playing dangerous games.”
• Amirbeyov: “Armenia must urgently address the obvious territorial claim embedded in its current Constitution regarding a part of Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory,”

Constitutional Court Punts

Azerbaijan has directly demanded that Armenia conduct a referendum abandoning all references and claims to Nagorno Karabakh, the Armenian Genocide, the Diaspora, etc. They want not just this leadership of Armenia to make the changes, because they know this government will eventually go away, but in their words, the people of Armenia “should demand a referendum to amend the constitution”.

We mentioned last week that Armenia’s constitutional court rubber stamped Pashinyan’s border agreement with Azerbaijan.

As part of that decision they also decided to address the constitutional reference to the Declaration of Independence. Of course one has absolutely nothing to do with the other.

* Note: The reason it did so was that “there hasn’t yet been a doctrinal decision” on the matter.
* In a treatise dozens of pages long the constitutional court found that the principles in the Declaration of Independence cannot have any legal repercussion, unless those same principles are underscored in the Constitution itself.

We should note that this is exactly the part that Azerbaijan wants Pashinyan to change, so it’s not a coincidence that Pashinyan has the entire government working to conform to Aliyev’s demands.

We should also note that the constitutional court has been packed with Pashinyan loyalists in the past 3 years of purging all dissenting judges.

Questions:

• What was the court’s statement about the constitutional reference to the declaration of independence? Does it mean that the constitution needs to be changed, or that there is no need to change it?
  • What did the court decide as far as the Demarcation and Delimitation principles agreement goes?
• Pashinyan has said that Azerbaijan’s constitution contains explicit demands on the territory of Armenia. Like most of it. Why isn’t he demanding a reciprocal agreement for constitutional amendments?
  • What happens if Armenia changes its constitution per Aliyev’s demand, and removes alleged claims to Azerbaijan’s territories. Obviously this demand aims to legitimize the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh and the dispossession of the Armenians with international legal basis. Then Azerbaijan tears the so-called “peace agreement”, and says “You have no claims, but we do.” Where does that leave Armenia?

Upcoming BRICS Summit

The upcoming BRICS summit, set to take place in Kazan, Russia, later this month, is expected to address several critical global issues, including expanding membership, economic cooperation, and reforming international financial institutions. BRICS, an alliance initially started by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has been seeking to increase its influence in the global economy by offering alternatives to Western-dominated institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Many countries have expressed interest to join this new organization. Turkey and Azerbaijan have formally expressed their desire to join. Armenia this year will attend as an observer.

Due to the geopolitical repercussions of the war in Ukraine, this summit has drawn particular attention from the media.

Questions:

• What are the major issues that are expected to be addressed during the upcoming summit?
• Turkey and Azerbaijan have expressed intention to join.
  • Have either of them formally submitted an application?
  • Is their membership up for voting?
• How would their membership in BRICS affect the economy in the South Caucasus?

Thoughts from the Participants

• Benyamin: The constitutional court’s decision on the declaration of independence undermines the foundations of the republic.
• Hovik: 1789 “Rights of man & Citizen” declaration served 5 French republics.
  • Keep pressing for our POWs & hostages to be returned, use #COP29.
  • YouTube censoring users for their views, including a recent guest of ours, Glenn Diesen.
  • Groong adding Rumble and Substack as channels of communication and dissemination of Armenian News.

Wrap-up

That’s our Week in Review, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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