Sergei Melkonian - September 12-13 Anniv, Armenia Azerbaijan Talks, More USAID, Georgian Parliamentary Elections | Ep 365 - Sep 15, 2024 [EP365]

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Guest:

• Dr. Sergei Melkonian

Topics:

• September 12-13 Anniversary
• Between Blinken and a Hard Place
• More USAID for Armenia
• Georgian Parliamentary Elections

Episode 365 | Recorded: Sep. 17, 2024

Show Notes

Topics This Week

Sep 12-13 Anniversary

More than 2 years since the Azerbaijani war on Armenia, ending up with occupation of more than 200 sq km (approx. size of Yerevan) in Vayots Dzor and Syunik.

In the aftermath, we have:

• More than 200 soldiers were killed, some were brutally murdered in what can be described as full fledged war crimes.
• In Jermuk, one of Armenia’s most touristic cities, Azeri soldiers are less than 5km from the town.
• We’re not aware that Armenia is pursuing any international legal action related to these war crimes.
• A full list of names was never released and the anniversary of such a tragedy was not observed at a state level.
• And despite demarcation and delimitation ostensibly being presented as a fair mechanism for resolving border issues, Aliyev has said he will never leave those territories and there’s no indication that Armenia under Pashinyan will ever demand these territories.

The following day, Pashinyan in parliament said that “we want to sign a paper for which we will be called traitors”. Next month, on Oct. 5, 2022, Pashinyan went to Prague to sign away Artsakh.

Questions:

• Why isn’t the Pashinyan regime releasing a complete list of those who gave their lives for the nation?
• Did the Prague statement signed by Pashinyan legitimize Aliyev’s blockade and cleansing of Artsakh less than a year later, in September 2023?
• Why wasn’t reclaiming these occupied areas made a priority, or at least a key point, during the discussions on border demarcation and delimitation?

Between Blinken and a hard place

There has been some very heated diplomacy since Putin’s visit to Baku 3 weeks ago. After Iran’s harsh criticism aimed at Moscow, secretary of the security council Sergei Shoigu “clarified” Russia’s position to his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Ahmadian in St. Petersbourg, that there’s no change in policy, no changes are planned to borders or sovereignty, but he said they want Armenia to comply with point 9 of the Nov 9, 2020 ceasefire agreement. In fact, after Ahmadian’s visit to St. Petersburg last week, today Shoigu was in Iran.

Questions:

• Do we know what is under discussion specifically between Shoigu said to Ahmadian and if Iranian concerns could be alleviated?
• Why is Russia so motivated to have control over this corridor through Armenia? What’s in it for Russia?
• Why isn’t Russia concerned about points 4 through 8 of the trilateral ceasefire agreement?
  • They dropped the ball on keeping Artsakhtsis safe in their homeland. Can’t Armenia say: let’s talk about point 9 as soon as we see 150,000 Artsakhtsis back in their homes with security guarantees; as soon as we see our POWs released from Baku; as soon as Azerbaijan retreats from Armenian territories (that we mentioned at the start of this show); and so on?

Soon after Russia’s clarifications to Iran last week, US state secretary Blinken made an unannounced phone call to Pashinyan late on Thursday to discuss the so-called “peace process” (as well as US-Armenia relations). Then on Friday Russian deputy PM Alexei Overchuk arrived in Armenia.

Questions:

• What was the urgent need for a discussion between Blinken and Pashinyan right before Overchuk’s visit?
  • The discussion also came on the heels of Baku’s rejection of Armenia’s repeated proposal to sign Pashinyan’s proposed agreement; basically an interim agreement, leaving out points not yet agreed upon.

More USAID for Armenia

A week ago USAID announced a doubling of aid to Armenia with another $130 million allocation. The objectives are: improving governance, civil participation in democracy, and improving the sustainable management of natural resources. It also includes support for ‘increasing the competitiveness of certain sectors to reduce reliance on Russia.

In an environment where the people of the country are not feeling the “economic growth” that the government claims and the prosperity that goes with that, the US is telling the people of Armenia “let them eat democracy”; and even more succinctly and literally: that “Armenians must be prepared to endure some cold winters.”

Questions:

• Nobody thinks that Armenia has market alternatives to what it exports to Russia and the rest of the EAEU. So how is this USAID going to help Armenia’s geo-economic and geopolitical situation?
• Given what the US ambassador to the OSCE said, what are the US expectations of Armenia?

Georgian Elections

On October 26 Georgia will hold parliamentary elections. The ruling party Georgian Dream’s efforts to rid the country’s domestic politics from foreign influence over the past year have led to an acute crisis between Georgia and the EU. The West is painting these elections as a pivot to the west or to the east.

Question:

• What’s at stake in Georgia and maybe more to the point for us, what’s at stake for Armenia, in these 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections?
• Is it crazy to think that Georgia and Russia may reconcile their differences around Abkhazia and S. Ossetia? How likely is this?

Alright, let’s wrap up our topics here. I’d like to ask each of you if there’s been something on your mind this past week that you want to talk about.

Wrap-up

That’s our Week in Review, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions under our Youtube videos, and you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms. Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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