David Darchiashvili - Georgian Elections in October 2024| Ep 363 - Sep 14, 2024 [EP363]

Groong Links:

• linktr.ee/Groong

Guest:

• Dr. David Darchiashvili

Topics:

• Election and Politics, and The Geopolitical Context
• Who are the Major External Influencers in Georgia’s Politics?
• Why is the EU hell bent against the Law on “Foreign Agents”?
• Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia Relations

Episode 363 | Recorded: September 11, 2024

Show Notes

Election and Politics

Georgia is holding parliamentary elections on October 26, and the internal political rhetoric is heating up.

We know that there is a big rift between the current Georgian Dream ruling party and the West to the point where the EU has paused Georgia’s EU candidacy and has imposed a number of sanctions against the ruling party leadership after the recent law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence”, which the West calls the “Foreign Agent Law” (or even “Putin’s Law”?), and other legislative changes that were introduced in the country.

Amidst high polling numbers, Georgian Dream has doubled-down on its political and geopolitical positions and officials; just yesterday they announced Bidzina Ivanishvili as their party’s lead candidate, current PM Irakli Kobakhidze as their Number 2, and former PM Irakli Gharibashvili as their Number 3.

Georgia also opted out of some anti-Russian measures throughout the war in Ukraine, causing issues and contention in relations between Georgia and Ukraine.

UNM To Be Banned?

Let’s start with a fiery statement published on the official Georgian Dream Facebook page on August 19, which stated that if GD achieves constitutional majority, then they will initiate a “legal process” as a result of which Saakashvili’s UNM and its satellites would be declared unconstitutional.

Questions:

• What does “constitutional majority” mean, what percentage of the vote does GD need to achieve this, and can they?
• Why does GD perceive that the UNM should be declared unconstitutional?
  • What is the legal mechanism through which UNM will be declared outside the constitution?
• The statement might seem pretty divisive. Is GD concerned about building solidarity?
  • Doesn’t it make sense to be less polarized ahead of elections?
  • What has been the reaction to this statement?
  • Do voters demand such strong statements ahead of elections?
• Can we say that this is the GD going “all in”? Is there any coming back from this, in terms of restoration of relations with the west?

The latest GORBI polls show support for GD at 59.3,while the leading opposition party UNM would get 13.1%. Even if all the opposition parties voted in unity, they would theoretically get 40%.

Questions:

• How much can we trust these poll numbers?
• What major parties are running for leadership, and what ideologies and political views do they represent?
• In terms of tactics and strategy, what has been the key to success for GD?
  • Has their rating increased when they’ve taken the opposition head on?
• Are voters concerned more about internal or external issues?
  • Do they rely heavily on the media?
    • We have been told that almost all media is foreign funded and supports the opposition)

The Geopolitical Context

The upcoming elections are set to be a defining moment for Georgia’s future. Voters will decide whether to turn away from the conservative policies of Georgian Dream, potentially punishing them at the polls, or to endorse their approach, which could effectively put the country’s EU aspirations on hold, at least for now.

Question:

• Parties and candidates are always saying that the current elections are the most important ever, and the stakes have never been higher, etc. How important are these elections in Georgia, and why?

Just last week MPs from Germany traveled to Georgia to support the opposition and gave GD a stern warning that the “Foreign Agent Law” must be abolished or EU membership will be blocked.

Questions:

• Why has this legislative issue become such a major battle ground between the West and Georgia? What is at stake here?
  • Specifically about this law, it’s a lot weaker than laws like FARA in the US, and many other European countries. So it’s a little strange that the EU doesn’t respect a symmetrical relationship with Georgia and its laws.
• The West frequently accuses Georgia of serving Russian interests. How true is that?
• Is Turkey a player in Georgian politics?
• Have relations with China become a greater factor?

Potential for Post-Election Turmoil

Many are predicting a high chance that the next government of Georgia may not be decided at the polling stations because regardless of the results, there is so much polarization that one side or the other might hit the streets.

Questions:

• Will the opposition accept the results, if the CEC announces a GD victory?
• Could there be post-election violence and and potential for non-electoral regime change?

Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Russia Relations

In the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan is demanding that Armenia change its constitution, theoretically to eliminate territorial demands. Armenia says its constitution has no territorial demands, yet Azerbaijan’s constitution has 45-46,000 sq.km. of demands from Armenia and Georgia. Pashinyan also says that he’s not raising this issue in the negotiations in order to not block it.

Questions:

• How is Georgia dealing with Azerbaijani territorial claims, border delimitation issues, and are there negotiations to remove such claims?
• Some analysts see the upcoming polls in Georgia as pivotal for Armenia as well. Would you agree? Why are these elections in Georgia important for Armenia?

Wrap-up

That’s our show! We hope you found it useful. Please find us on Social Media and follow us everywhere you get your Armenian news. Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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