Arthur G Martirosyan - Next POTUS | Turkish-Armenian Talks | US-Armenian Defense Coop | Armenia Azerbaijan Talks | Ep 347 - July 28, 2024 [EP348]

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Guest:

• Arthur G. Martirosyan

Topics:

• Who Will be the Next Leader of the US?
• Turkish-Armenian Talks
• US-Armenian Defense Coop
• Armenia Azerbaijan Talks

Episode 348 | Recorded: July 30, 2024

Show Notes

Topics This Week

Who will be the next leader in the US?

As the field of the major candidates for President of the United States (POTUS) settles, we’re now looking at a change of administration in January 2025, as Biden steps down and either Trump, or Kamala Harris steps up.

Questions:

• How do you see the presidential race shaping up in the US?
• How will a potential Trump presidency affect US policy in the region and Armenia specifically?
• What about a Harris presidency?

US Policy in the Caucasus

Biden’s administration has put a lot of effort and attention, at the secretary of state level, to get an agreement, any agreement, to be signed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Talking to analysts, the immediate goal seems to be for any agreement to be signed that would get Aliyev to greenlight Turkey to open the border with Armenia.

Questions:

• Why is there a sense of urgency for signing some agreement, is the window of opportunity dwindling? Why?
• Would Trump, or Harris, make a difference in how the US pursues its Caucasus policy?

Armenian-Turkish Talks

One day after Erdogan boasted to the world that they will enter Israel just like they did in Artsakh (Karabakh) and Libya, today, July 30th, another round of Turkish-Armenian negotiations was held by Ruben Rubinyan and his colleague Serdar Kilic. This after a 2 year break!

If you remember, Pashinyan-regime officials were presenting the situation as an accomplishment when they “agreed in principle” to open the border for citizens of third countries back in June 2022.

Armenian chief negotiator Ruben Rubinyan, followed up with rosy predictions that the border could be opened “as early as this summer”, referring to summer of 2022.

Yet, nothing happened other than more Azerbaijani encroachments and ethnic cleansing of Artsakh.

And after today’s meeting, as expected, another generic statement was issued, “reconfirming” previous agreements and “reemphasizing” to continue negotiations.

Questions:

• Before going into the topic in detail, a quick detour about negotiation tactics. Why did Ruben Rubinyan paint such a rosy picture in 2022?
  • Was he so out of touch with reality?
  • If not, is it a special negotiating tactic to announce the opening, knowing full well that nothing will happen without Azerbaijan’s OK? (I’m seriously curious about this)
• Why meet now when Turks have clearly repeated that Turkey won’t normalize relations before Armenia essentially capitulates to Aliyev’s conditions?
  • Now, when Azerbaijan’s hand against Turkey and Europe is stronger, what “bones” can Turkey throw Nikol’s way, if any, without a veto from Aliyev?
  • In the Azerbaijan-Turkey relationship today, as far as Armenia is concerned, is the tail (Azerbaijan) wagging the dog (Turkey)?
• Is this meeting today happening because of US pressure?
  • What are the main objectives that the US is pursuing in opening the Turkish-Armenian border?

Turkey’s Role in the 44-Day War

Given Erdogan’s boasting, we wanted to take our listeners back to 2020. When the 44-day war started on the morning of September 27, 2020, it was initiated by the use of massive firepower around the entire line of contact. But more specifically, it was reported that within the first hours of the war, many important Armenian air defense targets were immediately taken out. Some analysts claim that this accurate knowledge of our air defense assets represents a significant intelligence accomplishment.

Facts:

• Azerbaijan has 2 satellites.
• Turkey has 21 satellites.
• But Turkey, as a NATO member, could also potentially have access to 300+ satellites of NATO partners.

The reason I am reminding this is to set the stage for my next question.

We know that Turkey had a significant role in the war in Artsakh. We know that their special forces participated. There were reports that at least one part of the war was being managed and coordinated from an AWACS plane flying over Turkey.

Turkey actually had several generals stationed in Azerbaijan. But all of this didn’t stop officials in Baku from denying Turkish military involvement. In a statement on Monday, Monday, they said that Turkey only provided “political support” to Azerbaijan.

Questions:

• In your assessment, how critical was the Turkish involvement in the 44-day war, for ensuring the defeat of Armenia?
• Could anything have been done by the Pashinyan regime to prevent Turkey’s entry in the war?
• Going back to Erdogan’s verbal fight with Israel, is there any chance that Turkey could militarily get involved in the Gaza war?

US - Armenia Defense Cooperation

As the Eagle Partner 2024 military exercises ended, there’s been a lot of government propaganda about upgraded defense ties between the US and Armenia, the intentions to raise them to a “strategic” level, and the US intent to station a military advisor in the Armenian ministry of defense.

Questions:

• What was the value realized by each side, from these exercises? Is Armenia better able to defend itself because of these exercises?
  • For one thing some analysts say that the drills are more about police-style crowd control, than military or national defense.
• Why does the US want to station a military advisor inside the Armenian MoD?

After the exercises, Louis Bono stopped by Yerevan to follow up on the Armenia-Azeri discussions in DC on July 10th. There were no reported agreements from that event, except the US made clear that they expect “tough compromises” from both sides to strike up an agreement.

Question:

• What “tough compromises” are being expected from both Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Armenia - Azerbaijan Talks

Aliyev Again Threatens Armenia With War

Compounded by the $10 million that the EU allocated for Armenia from the European Peace Facility, the US-Armenian exercises provided an opportunity for Aliyev to again threaten Armenia with war. Azerbaijan perceives the pitiful crowd-control joint exercises between the US and Armenia, as well as the EUR 10M field hospital provided by the EU as a threat and saying it will act in “self defense”.

Azerbaijani diplomats say this with a straight face while talking about Armenia’s $10M field hospital while their army is being armed with billions of dollars worth of the most lethal weaponry.

The threats continued until Monday, when Azerbaijan accused Armenia of flying a quadcopter over its positions in Tovuz. This was immediately denied by Armenia.

Questions:

• What do you make of Azerbaijan’s renewed threats of war?
• What do you make of Russia’s continued stern warnings, cautioning Armenia from following the “Ukraine scenario”.

Wrap-up

That’s our Week in Review, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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