Hrant Mikaelian - Prospect of Trump Presidency on the South Caucasus, Mirzoyan at NATO, Parade of US Officials in Armenia, MPG Poll Review | Ep 345 - July 14, 2024 [EP345]

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Guest:

• Hrant Mikaelian

Topics:

• Prospect of Trump Presidency on the Caucasus
• Mirzoyan at NATO Summit in DC
• Parade of US Officials in Armenia
• MPG Poll

Episode 345 | Recorded: July 16, 2024

Show Notes

Prospect of Trump Presidency and Effect On The Region

The entire world is talking about the assassination attempt on Donald Trump that occurred on July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania.

There are many questions to ask about this incident, including the apparent failure of the US secret service to adequately protect the former president and current Republican presidential candidate. But for many of those in the region, the question is about what happens next, especially since it seems that the prospect of a Trump presidency is now much higher.

Question:

• How will a Trump presidency affect the US policy in the region? Do you have any predictions?

Mirzoyan at NATO Summit in DC

Mirzoyan and Bayramov were invited to attend the NATO Summit in Washington DC over the weekend of July 8th. It is clear that the US has been putting a lot of attention, if not outright pressure, on Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign an agreement. Any agreement!

Despite Blinken proclaiming that the sides are close to signing an “historic” agreement, Aliyev has effectively stopped the process with his demand that Armenia change its constitution.

And while Azerbaijan says that this is the main sticking point in the negotiations, it is clear that he’s saying that this is only THE CURRENT sticking point. They’ve explicitly said changing the Armenian constitution doesn’t mean they will sign anything.

Questions:

• Were there any outcomes from Mirzoyan’s trip to Washington DC?
• What’s the current state of the talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
• Is there a sense of urgency on the part of the US to get an agreement signed?
• What pressure can the US apply on Azerbaijan?

Erdogan’s “Final” Sticking Point

Meanwhile, Erodgan continues to say that there won’t be peace until Armenia essentially gives up Syunik. Turkey and Azerbaijan want an extraterritorial corridor to connect through Armenia. He frequently reminds Pashinyan of this, like for example this week when Turkey simply blocked cargo air traffic to Armenia with no warning or reason.

Question:

• What else can we expect on the road to the final step?

Russia’s Reaction

Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, Galuzin, said: “by deepening cooperation at such a pace with those whose goal is the “strategic defeat” of Russia, Yerevan risks seriously destabilizing the situation in the South Caucasus to the detriment, including its own security.”

Despite how this downhill spiral in relations between Armenia and Russia started, we are where we are, which is a strategic ally, for whatever reasons, was not able or willing to stop the ethnic cleansing in Artsakh and the continuing pressure on Armenia by its enemies.

Question:

• What does Russia expect when it has made concessions to Turkey and Azerbaijan to the detriment of Armenia?

Parade of US Officials through Armenia

Over the course of this summer there’s been a flood of US politicians running through Armenia. Last week it was Samantha Power, director of USAID, baking Jingalov Hats with Artsakh refugees in Armenia, and promising $2.4 million towards protecting Armenian citizens’ private data, and $5 million to expand use of AWS in Armenia.

Currently deputy secretary of state Uzra Zeya is in Yerevan, meeting with “civil society leaders”, visiting Tsitsernakabert, and other places.

Meanwhile, Ambassador Kvien was in Syunik, celebrating the US day of independence in Kapan. She appears to enjoy Syunik as much as Lynn Tracy, her predecessor.

Questions:

• Are we special, or is the US spending just as much time around Georgia and Azerbaijan as well?
• What was the deal with Samantha Power’s visit last week? Why is USAID interested in the protection of Armenian citizens’ private data?
• Power said that the US is investigating the “exodus” of Armenians from Artsakh to determine whether it was “ethnic cleansing”. What’s the end goal of this investigation, and what outcomes could be expected from it?

New MPG Poll

Last week, MPG released the latest poll results. The results indicate several changes:

• Pashinyan rating increased slightly
• Armenians apparently are yearning for the EU
• And more…

Slide 3: Is Armenia Moving in the Right Direction?

• Հայաստանն ընդհանուր առմամբ շարժվում է ճի՞շտ, թե՞ սխալ ուղղությամբ (Slide 3)
  • Is Armenia generally moving in the right or wrong direction?

Questions:

• How has this changed from previous polls?
  • How do you explain all of the above dynamics in the most recent poll?

Slide 5: Armenian Policy on Artsakh

• Ի՞նչ քաղաքականություն պետք է վարի Հայաստանն Արցախյան հարցում (Slide 5)
  • What policy should Armenia pursue in the Artsakh issue?

Question:

• How do these results compare with previous iterations of this question?
  • Nearly 10.2% of people say that we should forget about Artsakh?
  • And 21.5% say that we should essentially restore control over Artsakh (we’re assuming militarily).

Slide 12: Appetite For Constitutional Changes

Let’s look at the next question, which asks whether people support changing Armenia’s constitution, as Ilham Aliyev demands.

Nearly 80% of people responded “No”, the constitution should remain unchanged. Compared with another version of this poll in January, this is a huge difference. At that time only 38% of people were categorically against a new constitution, but at that time the poll didn’t mention that this was being demanded by Aliyev.

• On July 1, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev stated that the most important condition for concluding a peace treaty with Armenia is the amendment of the Constitution of Armenia. What do you think, should the current constitution of the Republic of Armenia be amended? January: On January 19, Nikol Pashinyan announced that Armenia needs a new Constitution. Do you think it is necessary to make changes or adopt a completely new constitution for RA? (Slide 12)
  • Հուլիսի 1-ին Ադրբեջանի նախագահ Իլհամ Ալիեւը նշել է, որ Հայաստանի հետ խաղաղության պայմանագրի կնքման կարեւորագույն պայմանը Հայաստանի Սահմանադրության փոփոխությունն է: Ի՞նչ եք կարծում, արդյոք Հայաստանի Հանրապետության գործող սահմանադրությունը պետք է փոփոխության ենթարկվի: Հունվար: Հունվարի 19 ին Նիկոլ Փաշինյանը հայտարարեց որ Հայաստանը կարիք ունի նոր Սահմանադրության: Ըստ Ձեզ արդյոք անհրաժեշտ է փոփոխություններ կատարել կամ լիովին նոր սահմանադրություն ընդունել ՀՀ համար

Question:

• How would you assess the responses and the difference between now and January?

Slides 4, 6, and 7: NATO, EU, EAEU

The poll also touched on the sentiment of the respondents to being in international organizations, both security and economic. For instance, the poll asked respondents about leaving the CSTO as well as joining the EU.

Should Armenia continue to join the CSTO or should it seek to join NATO?

• Ձեր կարծիքով Հայաստանը պետք է շարունակի անդամակցել ՀԱՊԿ-ին, թե՞ պետք է ձգտի միանա ՆԱՏՕ-ին (Slide 4)
  • In your opinion, should Armenia continue to join the CSTO or should it seek to join NATO?

• About 29% say they want to join NATO (rise of 6.5% since February)
• Meanwhile, only about 17% say they should remain in CSTO, an 11% fall since February.
• Meanwhile about 44% say that Armenia should be neutral, an increase of 4%.

Questions:

• What exactly has caused this dramatic shift downwards toward the CSTO.
• How much of it can be attributed to the Pashinyan regime’s active propaganda against Russia, and the CSTO?

Should RA join the EU?

• Ըստ Ձեզ արդյո՞ք ՀՀ-ն պետք է անդամակցի ԵՄ-ին (Slide 6)
  • According to you, should RA join the EU?

Should RA Leave the EAEU to join the EU?

• Եվրոպական միությանը անդամակցելու առաջին նախապայմանը Եվրասիական Տնտեսական Միության ԵԱՏՄ անդամակցությունից Հայաստանի Հանրապետության դուրս գալն է: Ըստ Ձեզ Հայաստանը պե՞տք է դուրս գա Եվրասիական Տնտեսական Միությունից եւ սկսի Եվրոպական միությանը անդամակցելու գործընթացը (Slide 7)
  • The first precondition for joining the European Union is the withdrawal of the Republic of Armenia from the EAEU membership of the Eurasian Economic Union. In your opinion, should Armenia leave the Eurasian Economic Union and start the process of joining the European Union?

Slide: 8: Assessing the Srbazan/Tavush movement

• Ինչպե՞ս եք գնահատում Տավուշի թեմի առաջնորդ Բագրատ արքեպիսկոպոս Գալստանյանի նախաձեռնած “Տավուշը հանուն հայրենիքի” շարժումը (Slide 8)
  • How do you evaluate the “Tavush for the Motherland” movement initiated by the leader of the Diocese of Tavush, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan?

Question:

• How do you assess the drop in popularity of the movement?

Slide 10: Evaluate the work of RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan

• Գնահատեք ՀՀ վարչապետ Նիկոլ Փաշինյանի աշխատանքը (Slide 10)
  • Evaluate the work of RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan

Thoughts from the Participants

• Hovik: The farce that is the Armenian judicial system in the hands of Andreasyan and the Supreme Judicial Council

Wrap-up

That’s our Week in Review, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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