Anna Karapetyan | Peace Treaty and More Aliyev Demands | James O’Brien in Yerevan | Srbazan Movement | Ep 335 - June 9, 2024 [EP335]

Groong Links:

• GIVE to GROONG
• linktr.ee/Groong

Guest:

• Anna Karapetyan

Topics:

• Peace Treaty and more Aliyev Demands
• James O’Brien in Yerevan
• Russia Armenia Relations
• Srbazan Movement

Episode 335 | Recorded: June 10, 2024

Show Notes

Peace Treaty and More Aliyev Demands

In the past week there have been public exchanges between Armenian and Azerbaijani government officials. Aliyev stated that without changing the Armenian constitution there can be no peace. Mirzoyan replied that the best way to proceed would be to sign the “peace treaty” within the next month, we assume June or July. He said that the Armenian constitution was an internal matter, and the treaty included language that would preclude domestic law from breaching one party’s obligations to the other.

We can see that almost 4 years after the 44-day war, Aliyev brings new demands to the table, while Pashinyan’s job remains to essentially socialize the demands with the Armenian public, and execute them without losing power. This week’s demands:

• Changes in the Constitution - again
• Apology for the so-called “Khojali genocide”
• And he wanted Armenia and Azerbaijan to apply together to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group

Questions:

• Mirzoyan responded strongly to Aliyev’s demand to chuck the Armenian constitution, but did not respond to the OSCE MG demand. This seems like an important omission, what are your thoughts about it?
  • Note: does it mean that there is implicit agreement about the OSCE MG?
  • What does the OSCE MG represent within the context of international process and law, regarding Artsakh? What would its dissolution mean?
• In this latest round of public back and forth, the so-called “Zangezur corridor” was not raised. Has that issue gone away?

James O’Brien in Yerevan

The State Department’s man to the South Caucasus, James O’Brien, arrives today in Yerevan for two days of meetings with high level officials for “comprehensive discussions” on issues of US support for progress toward a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the use of the Alma Ata Declaration as a basis for the border demarcation process.

Questions:

• Why is James O’Brien in Yerevan at this point in time, and what are his main topics of interest with Pashinyan, Mirzoyan, etc?
• Why is there a special reference to the demarcation process and using Alma Ata as its basis?
  • Who has a problem with it? Why?

Relations With Russia

In the past week Armenia’s ambassador to Ukraine, Vladimir Karapetyan, and Tigran Ter-Margaryan, head of Nor Nork, a Yerevan district, went to Bucha and made statements, and delivered some humanitarian aid to local hospitals. The Russian MFA was quick to respond to the statements of the Armenian officials, and the following day Moscow sent an official note of protest to the Armenian government.

Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said that Armenia is refusing to cooperate at the level of MFA and Defense Ministers, and that its thoughtless steps may make it impossible to return to joint work with Russia and other CSTO countries towards the creation of a common defense area.

Questions:

• What is the Armenian government’s motivations for these latest events, and where does it put the current state of relations between the countries?

Pashinyan’s government has appointed Gurgen Arsenyan, a Civil COntract oligarch, as the next ambassador to Russia, but Russia has delayed its approval of his appointment.

Questions:

• Is Gurgen Arsenyan an appropriate appointment?
• Arsenyan is replacing Vagharshak Harutynyan. How should we assess Harutyunyan’s tenure?

Srbazan Movement

Rally on Sunday

Sunday, yesterday evening, was the most recent of the large gatherings called by Bagrat Srbazan in Yerevan. While the authorities are making every possible effort to distract from the popular movement and the discontent with the government’s policies, the Srbazan movement is continuing to gather steam.

Bagrat Srbazan has stated some of the goals of the movement for when they gain power. First of all: regime change is a goal, and the movement has named him as their PM designate; forming a provisional government of national unity; and holding free elections.

Questions:

• Impressions from the rally?
• Are the necessary conditions and atmosphere present for the Srbazan Movement to succeed?
• Unlike in 2018, the current government seems mostly acceptable to foreign powers, and none are interested in regime change. Do you agree?
• The US and EU governments have flat-out ignored the police brutality towards protesters. How do you explain this attitude from the (self-selected) champions of human rights and democracy?

Topics from the Panelists

• Hovik: Active remorse now applies to corruption and other grave crimes, to the benefit of Civil Contract circles.
• Anna: EU parliamentary results seem to indicate that EU policies do not match the will of their people.

h

Wrap-up

That’s our Week in Review, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

Guests

Hosts