Anna Karapetyan - Trilateral US-EU-Armenia Meeting | Talks With Azerbaijan | Relations With Russia in Free Fall | Pashinyan Suppressing Artsakh Leadership | Ep 323 - Apr 7, 2024 [EP323]

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Guest:

• Anna Karapetyan

Topics:

• Trilateral US-EU-Armenia Meeting
• Talks with Azerbaijan
  • Tavush: What has Pashinyan Promised
• Relations with Russia in Freefall
• Pashinyan Suppressing Artsakh Leadership

Episode 323 | Recorded: April 8, 2024

Show Notes

Trilateral US-EU-Armenia Meeting

Onn April 5 between the US, the EU and Armenia held a Trilateral meeting. Pashinyan met with Anthony Blinken and Ursula von der Leyen on Friday and agreements were signed for a combined $350 million aid package aimed at the “ resilience of the Armenian economy”.

This meeting was very loudly denounced by both Azerbaijan’s Aliyev, as well as the Russian MFA, despite assurances on the part of the participants that the talks were not aimed, or against Azerbaijan or Russia, Both Blinken and von der Leyen called Aliyev and emphasized that no Armenian security issues were being discussed. But these assurances did not correspond to their perceptions, and after the meeting Aliyev escalated tensions along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border with shootings along the border.

Questions:

• What was the purpose of this meeting, and what does “Armenia’s resilience” mean?
• There are different reads on the aid package. Some analysts think that because the west is using the Turkish-Azeri language of “corridor” in pressuring Armenia to agree to opening Syunik to Azerbaijan, that this aid amounts to an institutionalized bribe to the Armenian government to consent. What do you think of this perspective?
• Why is Aliyev so pissed off about this meeting, what outcomes is he expecting from it that could be negative for Azerbaijan?
• Why is Russia so upset at this meeting, as to warn Armenia about the aid package?
  • They hinted that Armenia is following the example of Ukraine, and that the west is deceiving Armenia with aid packages that were “irresponsible and destructive”.

Talks with Azerbaijan

Meanwhile the talks with Azerbaijan continue to be stalled. Mirzoyan stated over the weekend that there are two major sticking points between Armenia and Azerbaijan:

1. Azerbaijan does not recognize Armenia’s sovereignty per the 1991 Alma-Ata declarations.
2. Azerbaijan is not interested in border delimitation, based on those borders.

Question:

• What has the Pashinyan regime achieved in 3.5 years of so-called “negotiations” with Azerbaijan?

Now Tavush: More Secret Pashinyan Promises

Somewhere along the line after the 44-day war, the so-called “negotiations” became about Armenian territory, rather than about Artsakh. Even though the November 9, 2020 agreement said that all sides must stay on the line of contact as per November 9, Pashinyan had promised to give up a lot more than he admitted to the people of Armenia. Karvajar, Berdzor, all of Artsakh, a section of the Goris-Kapan road, and now it’s apparent that he may have also promised sections of Tavush.

Question:

• On what basis is Pashinyan saying that the four villages in Armenia are Azerbaijani territory, especially when the Azerbaijani side has not agreed on a basis for border discussions?

Relations with Russia in Free Fall

A week ago the Armenian government banned the Russia-1 TV station in Armenia, for offensive political content. A couple of weeks ago Pashinyan asked the Russian border guards to leave Zvartnots airport, so that date now is set for August 1st. Now there’s escalating talk about the Russian border guards around Armenia and also the base in Gyumri. The Russian MFA has warned that Russian military presence in Armenia is the only real guarantee of Armenia’s sovereignty, and that relations between the two countries are on the verge of collapse.

Questions:

• Can you summarize the current state of this relationship, and where it’s headed?
• Are Russian border guards a hurdle for Armenia in its effort to ramp up military cooperation with western countries, including India?
• A couple of weeks ago Armenian banks cut off Russian credit cards from their processing system. Why, and what could be the consequences of such a move?
  • What effect will this have on remittances, and also tourism, from Russia?

Pashinyan Suppressing Artsakh Leadership

In the middle of March “hundreds” of Artsakhtsis demonstrated in Yerevan because the government has not been allocating necessary aid appropriately, but more specifically, it hasn’t been seeking or pursuing their right of return to their homeland.

Artsakh president Samvel Shahramanyan confirmed that the declaration of dissolution of the Artsakh government had no merit or basis, and that his government continues to exist in exile. Pashinyan was pissed off and warned that such statements serve Russian interests, and they threaten the security of Armenia.

Artak Beglaryan, a former state minister of Artsakh, correctly stated that Pashinyan is threatening the Artsakh leadership, and no actions against them can be excluded.

Questions:

• First, let’s not forget that there are 150,000 Artsakh refugees in Armenia, a result of 3.5 years of forced ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijan. What’s their condition in Armenia?
• What’s going on with the aid?
• Why is Pashinyan so adamant on silencing the Artsakh leadership?

Topics from the Panelists

• Hovik: The EU Mission: See no evil, hear no evil, are they just a PR stunt?
• Anna: When Western leaders are silent on Pashinyan’s failures in democracy, trust in them erodes.

Wrap-up

That’s our Week in Review, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

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