From ‘revolution’ to war: deciphering Armenia’s populist foreign policy-making process Conversation with Dr. Vahram Ter-Matevosyan
Armenian News Network/Groong - September 12, 2022
Recently two AUA professors (Prof. Hovhannes Nikoghosyan and Prof. Vahram Ter-Matevosyan) published a paper in Taylor and Francis Online (TANDF) that analyzes the foreign policy decision making (FPDM) process of the Nikol Pashinyan administration, titled: “From ‘revolution’ to war: deciphering Armenia’s populist foreign policy-making process”. In this episode, we talk to one of the authors of the paper, Prof. Ter-Matevosyan.
Introduction (00:02:22) - We discuss how the idea for the paper arose and the process through which the two scholars went through to conduct their research.
TURKEY (00:22:51) - One specific aspect of the war, that played a significant role in the outcome, was Turkey’s involvement. In our opinion, just by sharing with Azerbaijan accurate NATO signals and satellite intelligence in the form of targets to destroy is more than enough to consider its role as decisive. Turkey went beyond that of course. Thus, paying attention and estimating Turkey’s willingness to intervene on behalf of Azerbaijan would be critical for Armenia’s leadership. We of course have seen different members of the Pashinyan team assure the press and public, even weeks before the war, that Turkey would not dare intervene.
RUSSIA ( 00:37:18) - Many, especially those in the pro-Pashinyan camp today, blame Russia for throwing Armenia under the bus for better relations with Turkey.
AZERBAIJAN (00:46:56) - Many of the analysts we talk to state that it was pretty much obvious that Aliyev was gearing up for war starting from 2011 when he effectively rejected the peace deal being considered at the time. It is apparent that Azerbaijan also bid its time, preparing militarily but also tactically selecting a suitable period in time. In 2020, the world was preoccupied with Covid and in the US it was election season, as well as a period of near isolationism from foreign involvements in the Trump administration.
Episode 164 | Recorded: Sunday, September 11, 2022
Hovik Manucharyan is an information security engineer who moved from Seattle to Armenia in 2022. He co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020 and has been a contributor to Groong News since the late 1990s.
Asbed is founder of Groong and co-founder of the ANN/Groong podcast.